Sunday, August 7, 2022

Concentric Circles, our fate?


Throughout history, we have the archaeological evidence of many, many collapsed civilizations.

At in the past, there was a crumb of knowledge. That, for a community to achieve stable self sufficiency, a population of approximately three hundred fifty thousand. During our current era, this threshold sets into motion the internal commerce to self replicate with a notable lower need for outsourcing. The time to achieve this density throughout history varies, dependent upon the advancement of the technology of the era. 

Consider for a moment an analogy to the life cycle of a Cottonwood tree. Each year’s growth ring brings new social height to the species. Each growth ring represents the additional layer, considerably larger in displacement, to the previous layers. For example, a growth ring from the century mark would be considerable area displacement compared to a growth ring from the tenth year. During the later years of growth, the inner core declines, and core rot is the eventual near end life cycle. Eventually, the height and mass of the plant, the weakened core, and a high wind event will bring the tree down. The natural life cycle is completed. 

Perhaps a comparison of our human civilizations, past and present, can foreshadow the certainty that awaits. Let’s for a moment set an arbitrary threshold for internal commercial sustainability at a population of five hundred thousand, and an end point of civilization collapse at five thousand years. Internal core rot, perhaps beginning about the three thousand year mark. This is a threshold when the expansion and establishment of new outer growth declines, and the inner core has already declined and collapse because of infrastructure failure. Water, sewer, bridges and other public service infrastructure. The tax revenue collected from the reduced new outer ring is not sufficient for the repair and replacement of core infrastructure. Inflation has ballooned, civic government has ballooned, the entire population centre is top heavy with annual budget costs and trimming in recent decades, delaying the timely replacement of structures at the core. Technological advances of the time of this population area allow for people to retire at an earlier age and live decades longer. This then becomes the additional burden of civic government, along with yearly inflation, to fund from slower growth at the outer new growth areas.  

For further consideration we have observed that ice ages occur about every one hundred and twenty thousand years. There is geological evidence for three, and further evidence that there have been five in the earth’s past. During these natural event the sea level has changed by about one hundred and twenty meters, or over three hundred feet of fluctuation. Observing that life flourishes along coastlines, with this knowledge we know coastlines are in continual movement. Therefore, our civilizations of the past were oblivious to this knowledge, and decline because of natural displacement that sustained them in their era.

This was this morning’s thoughts, more to be expanded upon. Insight is paramount. 

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